冠昊生物股吧(贵州茅台股票技术分析)
冠昊生物股吧(贵州茅台股票技术分析)
本文目录一览：
冠昊生物2022年6月6日在深交所互动易中披露，截至2022年5月31日公司股东户数为3.25万户，较上期（2022年4月30日）增加530户，增幅为1.66%。
冠昊生物股东户数低于行业平均水平。根据Choice数据，截至2022年5月31日医药生物行业上市公司平均股东户数为4.4万户。其中，公司股东户数处于2万~3.5万区间占比*，为23.84%，冠昊生物也处在该区间范围内。
医药生物行业股东户数分布
股东户数与股价
2022年1月28日至今，公司股东户数有所下降，区间跌幅为1.61%。2022年1月28日至2022年5月31日区间股价下降13.44%。
股东户数及股价
股东户数与股本
截至2022年5月31日，公司*流通股本为2.65亿股。户均持有流通股数量由上期的8297股下降至8162股，户均流通市值10.62万元。
户均持股金额
冠昊生物户均持有流通市值低于行业平均水平。根据Choice数据，截至2022年5月31日，医药生物行业A股上市公司平均户均持有流通股市值为32.43万元。其中，25.00%的公司户均持有流通股市值在12万~23万区间内。
医药生物行业户均流通市值分布
免责声明：本文基于大数据生产，仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，据此操作风险自担。
现金流折现（DCF模型）堪称谜一般的存在，它被价值投资者认为是衡量一家公司内在价值的*判断标准，但真正计算起来确实十分复杂和主观，因为即使是一家公司的董事长也无法精确预计明年现金流的精确数字，更不用说五年、十年后的现金流了。
连芒格也说过：“我从来没见过巴菲特用计算器算过现金流这些公式。”
但每次有人问巴菲特怎么计算内在价值时，他都会回答用现金流折现公式，既算不出来，又要用，看似非常矛盾，其实不然。
其背后的根本原因是在于巴菲特已经将现金流折现模型了如指掌了，所以今天我们就来看一下，现金流折现到底如果指导我们投资？
一、现金流折现法：两个关键因子
现金流折现理论是约翰·威廉姆斯在1938年《投资价值理论》一书中首先提出的，现金流折现理论的含义为：“任何股票、债券或企业今天的价值，都取决于其未来剩余年限预期的净现金流，以一个适当的折现率加以折现后所得的的现值。”
其中，净现金流=现金流流入-现金流流出，也就是我们特指的企业自由现金流，
自由现金流=经营活动现金流量净额-维持性资本支出①
=净利润+折旧、摊销等非现金支出-净营运资本的增加量-维持性资本支出②
值得注意的是，在实际自由现金流的预测中，往往要依据第②个计算公式。
在这里有两点需要解释，一个是关于自由现金流折现公式的两个关键因子，一个是自由现金流的含义。
由折现公式可以得知，时间和折现率是影响内在价值计算的两个关键因素，其中时间代表了对企业未来有效存续期的判断，折现率则反映了对企业净现金流（真实盈利能力）增长力的判断。
一般情况下，企业生命周期越长，企业的内在价值越高，以及由对企业盈利能力判断得出来的折现率越低，企业内在价值越高；
反之如果企业的盈利空间和时间都有限，那么即使当前的贴现金额很高，从而使得企业当下的市场价格看上去很低，它也是没有投资价值的。
其中我还想说到的一点是，折现率r除了取决于企业经营确定性大小之外，还和无风险利率有着很大的关系，而无论是我国还是美国等其他国家，折现率r取值随着长期债券（10年期国债）收益率的下行存在降低趋势，从而使得企业内在价值“被动”提高；
事实上，我国10年期国债利率下行幅度还不算太大，但美国等其他10年期国债利率下降幅度则较为明显，我认为这便是助推美国股市走长牛的一大宏观因素。
（红色线债券利率走势为中国，其余其他国家当前的10年期国债利率都要低于中国。）
另外，关于自由现金流计算的问题，企业的财务报表上并没有“自由现金流”以及“维持性资本支出”这两个科目，导致我们无法精确计算，但净利润含金量越高（净利润含金量=经营活动现金流净额/净利润），
以及维持性资本支出越低的企业，它的自由现金流越高。
二、现金流折现案例：以贵州茅台为例
周末，财联社弹出来一则消息，据“今日酒价”*消息，多类茅台酒价格全线下跌，截至11月1日，53度飞天（2021）原箱价已由3750元下降至3400元，2021年份散飞已经跌至1660元，其他各年份的原箱价和散飞价亦于近几个交易日全线杀跌。（以上价格特指批发价/渠道价。）
这是茅台酒供过于求了？？
不管事实如何，今日茅台连带白酒板块都不太好看，也正是在这时，让我们来看一下茅台当前的价值如何吧。
1、贵州茅台未来五年的自由现金流预测（10年太长了，取5年吧）
首先，由自由现金流计算公式，并结合贵州茅台实际情况，我们认为由于茅台每年的维持性资本支出并不高，且企业每年的折旧、摊销等非现金支出以及净营运资本的增加量的和实际是可以覆盖企业维持性资本支出的，所以在维持保守估计的基础上，我们将贵州茅台每年的自由现金流=净利润，
是合理的。
所以最终我们要预测贵州茅台未来五年的净利润，它的增长率取值需要我们对贵州茅台进一步深入的了解。
参考依据①：
过去十年贵州茅台营业收入复合增长率为23.75%，净利润复合增长率为24.9%，但在这个过程中，贵州茅台出厂价由420元左右提升至969元，翻了一倍多，那么如果刨除涨价的因素，贵州茅台的净利润复合增速又该是多少呢？
50.51为2010年贵州茅台净利润，466.97为2020年贵州茅台净利润。
所以根据这个依据，在不确定贵州茅台是否涨价的基础上，我们对于未来五年贵州茅台净利润的增速预测不能超过15%。
参考依据②：
在白酒产量下行的阶段，贵州茅台近几年的整体销量并不太好，以及随着业绩基数的增大，企业业绩增长遇到了阻力，多亏了高价酒的结构性增长，才能使得业绩维持了正的增长，2019年净利润同比增长率为17.05%，2020年为13.33%，2021年前三季度为10.17%；
所以，未来五年白酒行业的高端白酒的结构化趋势将是企业增长的主要动力，同时结合主流白酒在“十四五规划”立下的五年翻倍目标，将贵州茅台未来5年的增长率设置为10%，得出来下图的净利润/自由现金流。
在不涨价的基础上，这个增长率已经不低了，那将来贵州茅台出厂价如果上涨的话，肯定就是利好了。
最后，对于5年之后，贵州茅台净利润/自由现金流的永续增长率我们就设置为5%吧。
2、贵州茅台的折现率取值以及内在价值计算
对于折现率的取值前面也说到了，是非常主观的事，如果对这家企业的确定性越强，我们的折现率就可以取得低一点，反之我们就应该取高一点，以保证投入的钱快速“回本”。
但这个值对企业最终内在价值影响又很大，所以我们就取两个值，分别是7%和10%吧。
最后，计算的贵州茅台内在价值如下图：
不得不说，折现率3%的差距构成了两个计算结果千差万别，内在价值呈现出1万多亿元的差距恐怕只有大体量的诸如茅台才会有了，那么这个结果的背后对于我们的投资有何指导意义呢，
我认为大家可以问自己两个问题，
对于贵州茅台的折现率你倾向于选择10%呢还是7%呢？
如果选择10%的话，那贵州茅台的泡沫岂不是上天了，而如果选择7%的话，你自己又确定可以取这个值吗？
（截至11月1日，贵州茅台的总市值为22649亿元。）
对于我来说，我可能会偏向于7%吧，这样也符合市场当前的情况，但市场显然对贵州茅台未来的发展还有所疑虑，现值22649亿元与内在价值28848亿元之间还存在6000多亿元的空间；
这个疑虑是存在哪里呢？我想可能是企业增长性的问题上，难道在2021-2025年取10%的增长率、永续增长率取5%的基础上，市场认为这个值还会低吗？
那么我们就将2026年以后的永续增长率取为3%计算一下吧。
（如果你看到了这里或者看不懂了，请回去阅读现金流折现理论，或者在评论区向我提问。）
最终计算出来，我把计算过程省略了，贵州茅台的内在价值为15442.81亿元。
因此贵州茅台未来能否涨价以及能否在高端白酒市场保持持续的增长成为非常关键的两点，但同时市场上，包括任何人都不可能确定，在老龄化加剧的时代，我们的白酒消费会在5年后甚至10年后维持稳定吗？
三、总结一下
总的来说，我们应该对贵州茅台现在是否被高估还是低估做个总结了，或许你们心中也都有自己的答案了；
立雪认为贵州茅台现在没有被低估，但泡沫也不大，最多称为不是很好的投资机会，但同时立雪对于茅台未来涨价还是有预期的，在自己的预测之下，贵州茅台还是有投资价值的企业，有三个原因：
一是基于企业内在价值本身随时间推移便是增长的；
二是基于茅台酒出厂价会涨价的预期，涨价预期与消费量下降预期对冲之后，永续增长率维持5%也是有可能的；
三是基于我对贵州茅台的确定性，这个确定性显然是来源于公司品牌价值与盈利能力方面的考虑。
当然，市场上一定有明显被低估的机会会被高估的风险，大家感兴趣就自己去预测一下吧！如巴菲特所说：“真正的好机会是冲着你大声喊叫的！”
关注飞鲸投研，这里有您最关心的投资报告！
飞鲸投研
7月9日丨冠昊生物(300238.SZ)公布2021年半年度业绩预告，公司预计上半年归属于上市公司股东的净利润盈利3800万元–4300万元，比上年同期增长40%-60%。
随着国内疫情得到有效控制，国内经济复苏，公司把握市场机遇，以市场为导向，积极适应国家政策，调整经营及营销策略，加强资源配置与协同。报告期内，公司主要业务板块销量较上年同期均有所提升。
为保持和扩大公司的技术领先优势，坚持科技创新，公司继续加强研发项目的投入，报告期内，研究费－费用化支出约1,900万元(2020年同期研究费－费用化支出1,709.61万元)。
报告期内，公司预计非经常性损益对净利润的影响金额为876万元(2020年同期非经常性损益对净利润的影响金额为733.82万元)。
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冠昊生物吧(300238)
冠昊生物吧
18.41-1.19-6.07%
帖子数2篇
火星du圣
影响力注册时长8个月
发表于 今天 12:47 来自Android版
帖子审核中，仅自己可见
更新于 今天 12:50
已答
转发
发表于 今天 10:48 来自Android版
帖子审核中，仅自己可见
更新于 今天 10:50
已答
明天跌破18
无识藏
影响力注册时长1个月
发表于 今天 10:25 来自股吧网页版
帖子审核中，仅自己可见
更新于 今天 10:26
已答两副对联
忙忙碌碌一碗饭 平平安安一张床 横批 众生平等攫取越多 损失越大 横批 结果一样
我爱家乡威海卫
影响力注册时长7年
发表于 04-24 12:33 来自Android版
帖子审核中，仅自己可见
更新于 今天 07:46
怎样才能穿越牛熊
影响力注册时长3.9年
发表于 06-14 12:34 来自股吧网页版
帖子审核中，仅自己可见
更新于 06-15 22:43
已答本维莫德乳膏---一朵耀眼鲜花
难道插错了地方？
迟来的涨停板
影响力注册时长3.2年
发表于 06-14 22:05 来自股吧网页版
帖子审核中，仅自己可见
更新于 06-15 19:49
已答金花股份去年底至今年初那段K线很美
行云流水，非常自然美。
发表于 06-15 19:27 来自股吧网页版
帖子审核中，仅自己可见
更新于 06-15 19:28
已答成大器还持仓吗
最近怎么消失了。
荒原中的果材
影响力注册时长5.3年
发表于 06-15 18:53 来自iPhone版
帖子审核中，仅自己可见
更新于 06-15 19:25
已答
30以上全是唱多的，20以下全是唱空？
vear21
影响力注册时长4.1年
发表于 06-15 19:16 来自Android版
帖子审核中，仅自己可见
更新于 06-15 19:19
已答
18.05的缺口，先补了再说吧，
未来music
影响力注册时长4.4年
发表于 06-14 07:28 来自Android版
帖子审核中，仅自己可见
更新于 06-15 17:08
已答我就不信
璠瑜mmm
影响力注册时长4.8年
发表于 06-14 19:51 来自股吧网页版
帖子审核中，仅自己可见
更新于 06-15 12:05
已答大股东为什么还不增持？
原因是什么？
股友S3KNlv1287
影响力注册时长3.2年
发表于 06-15 12:03 来自股吧网页版
帖子审核中，仅自己可见
更新于 06-15 12:04
已答
警告：此股破位，技术面至少下调到8.5元左右
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